New Year Stock Market Projections

The doom-and-gloom projections of the news media are starting again, so I thought this would be an opportune time to update my previous stock market projections.

I am still bullish on the stock market. Sure, words and phrases have been thrown about 6.59% drop in the NASDAQ this week, reaching 5000, Equities tumble, Will the stock market make you lose your job or other such headlines in the news. But, let's face it, no one buys the top, everyone buys the bottom for maximum ROI, and we are at that point near bottom.
​
Thus far, the SPY has been following a parallel pattern to 2011, and this week, is nearing the end formation of a half arc, in potentially, a final correction before resuming the uptrend.

​To be honest, I extrapolated that the half arc would be finished two weeks ago, but because of the shorter consolidation period before the formation of the very strong bullish indicator in October, there had been more perplexing consolidation in the formation of the half arc. Good news though, it's nearly finished. This is where we can all potentially breathe and think, where could the potential entry point be for this ensuing uptrend if it holds the support level? My projection for SPY will be that it will reach 242.04 by November 2017.

​Also the EURUSD has been consolidating in a snake-like pattern, and it looks to be on the verge of a potential breakout. Oftentimes, the EURUSD has been compared an analogous precursor to the movement of the S&P, although not exact. I like to look at the EURUSD for comparison, not necessarily a prognosticator of the SPY to verify a strong movement either way. However, currently it doesn't seem likely that the EURUSD will be plummeting anytime soon. In fact, the EURUSD seems to be nearing the end of its own consolidation pattern. 
​

Another favourite stock of mine is Apple (AAPL). Why not, I grew up idolising Steve Jobs, and the companies he have built have been tremendously inspirational to many people around the world. I still recall during his death when everyone put flowers and cards outside every Apple store location in the world.
​

​Steve Jobs didn't form a Gates Foundation non-profit to inject his influence in the African and pharmaceutical and biomedical sectors, but he had been a vegan for most of his life who hated traditional medicine, drank green juices and made inspirational speeches about following one's inner instincts. How can one not admire a man who had found his biological sister simply because he was drawn to reading her novels, without realising that she had been his sister all along, even if he did have a bit of temper? Perhaps in our current generation, the only person who comes close to Steve Jobs is the original ousted founder of Etsy, Rob Kalin.

But in regards to Apple, the company, no, it isn't going anywhere. Apple has long-term vision and has self-sufficient been for a long time, thanks to the trio that had been Steve Jobs, Tim Cook, and Jonny Ive. My Apple projections for the New Year is that it will reach 157.47-171.17 by August 2019, and that is a conservative estimate. Apple is currently at 96.45.

Chipotle has finished phase 1 of its European expansion and now entering the second phase. This is good news because now everyone is dumping their Chipotle stocks. Chipotle is currently at its support level. I surmise in the next couple of weeks, we will see it if it will begin consolidation at this level or slightly below. 
​

Mind you, I'm not a US stock broker, so this post is for education purposes only and not intended as stock advice. However, I think instead of reading the news, and looking at numbers all day long without context, that sometimes, it's good to simply look at the long-term picture. A lot of times, I found that certain patterns emerge before it even makes the news and visual analysis + macro analysis is better at discerning that big picture than looking at serial numbers that don't really convey much information aside from % points day in year out.

2016? It's going to be a great year for stocks. Unless of course, Uber declares bankruptcy. Then we are in deep trouble because Uber's valuation is currently higher than 80% of the S&P. So here's a shout out to Uber: Don't F*ck Up! 
​

By Sierra Choi

(Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes only and not intended as stock advice)